Is Dhaka Ready for a Major Earthquake? Rising Tremors Renew Fears

As tremors increasingly rattle Bangladesh’s capital and its surrounding region, experts warn that Dhaka may be dramatically underprepared for a major earthquake even as evidence suggests a growing seismic threat.

Seismic Risk Is Rising

Recent months have seen a surge in earthquake activity near Dhaka, prompting geologists to sound the alarm. Experts note that these frequent tremors could be foreshocks — small quakes that sometimes precede a much larger seismic event. As one scholar put it, “small tremors often precede a major earthquake,” and the current uptick may not be random.

Bangladesh lies at the intersection of active tectonic plates: the Indian, Eurasian, and Burmese plates converge in the region, placing Dhaka at risk. According to seismic models, several fault systems, including the Madhupur and Dauki faults, could generate earthquakes of magnitude 7 or greater.

A recent national risk assessment, supported by the United Nations, confirmed these dangers and highlighted how unplanned urban growth has compounded Dhaka’s vulnerability.

Urban Vulnerability Is Alarming

Dhaka’s population density and rapid, unregulated construction make it uniquely exposed to seismic disaster. Experts estimate that as much as 95% of the city’s buildings were built without proper planning or adherence to seismic safety standards.

A study by the city development authority (RAJUK) projected that in a magnitude-7 quake, over 800,000 buildings in Dhaka could collapse. Retrofitting the city’s high-risk infrastructure has been slow, and many critical systems remain inadequately protected: gas pipelines, water and sewage networks, and transport arteries are all considered weak under such stress.

In a worst-case scenario, gas line ruptures could spark fires, and a lack of open spaces would make mass evacuation and rescue extremely difficult.

Preparedness Measures Are Falling Short

Despite repeated warnings, earthquake preparedness remains limited. Building code enforcement is weak, and although the Bangladesh National Building Code has been updated to include seismic design, it is not consistently applied.

Experts argue there must be a fundamental shift in how Dhaka plans for disaster: they recommend categorizing buildings by risk (e.g., “weak,” “moderately weak,” “strong”) to prioritize retrofitting, and setting up independent inspections rather than relying solely on developers.

Civil engineers also stress the need for public education: residents must learn simple life-saving techniques like “drop, cover, and hold on,” and cities must run regular earthquake drills.

Emergency coordination is another gap. There’s no robust authority purely dedicated to earthquake resilience, and communication channels for disaster response are not yet well-established.

How Big Could the Next Quake Be?

Modeling suggests that if a quake of magnitude 6.9 or higher were to hit along key fault lines, the impact on Dhaka could be catastrophic:

• Between 40,000 and 310,000 buildings could be significantly damaged, depending on the fault source.
• Fire, rupture of gas mains, and disruption of water and electricity are likely outcomes, increasing the risk of secondary disasters.
• Casualties could reach into the hundreds of thousands, with difficult evacuation and little room for rescue in Dhaka’s narrow, overcrowded streets.

Time to Act Is Now

Experts agree: Dhaka may not survive a major quake without major reform. The capital needs bold action on several fronts:

1. Enforcement of Building Codes: Tightening checks and ensuring all new structures comply with seismic design standards.
2. Retrofitting: Prioritizing high-risk buildings for reinforcement.
3. Public Awareness: Launching mass education campaigns, drills, and risk mapping.
4. Resilient Infrastructure: Strengthening utilities like gas, water, and power against quake damage.
5. Institutional Integration: Establishing a dedicated earthquake resilience authority or task force that coordinates all aspects of preparedness and response.

If Dhaka fails to take these steps, experts warn, the next big tremor could leave devastation on a scale not seen before in the city.

Sources: bdnews24.com, The Daily Star, The Business Standard, UN Bangladesh, Dhaka Tribune, UNB (United News of Bangladesh)