Netanyahu Bloc Leads in Israel Election Count, but Falls Short of Majority

With 89.8 percent of votes counted in Israel’s election, the bloc led by Benjamin Netanyahu has secured 53 seats, while the bloc led by Yashar Party chief Gadi Eisenkot has won 48. Both remain well short of the 61 seats needed for a majority in the country’s 120-seat parliament.

Israel’s Central Elections Committee (CEC) released the figures on Wednesday, October 28. Meanwhile, two parties backed primarily by Arab voters are on course to win a record combined total of 19 seats, potentially giving them a significant role in negotiations to form a government. Arab voters turned out in record numbers in Tuesday’s election, hoping to remove Netanyahu and his far-right allies from power. Arab parties had previously won a maximum of 15 seats.

The results released on Wednesday evening differed from most opinion polls published before the election. Those surveys had shown Eisenkot’s bloc leading Netanyahu’s by varying margins, although none predicted a clear majority for either side.

Exit polls released by major broadcasters after voting ended at 10 p.m. on Tuesday had put Eisenkot’s bloc two to three seats ahead of Netanyahu’s. However, as counting continued overnight and into Wednesday afternoon, the actual tally diverged from the exit polls. Netanyahu’s party and its bloc overtook Eisenkot’s alliance.

Updated figures issued by the CEC after 9 p.m. Wednesday showed that 89.8 percent of the vote had been counted, including results from almost all regular polling stations. Although the results are not final, major changes are considered unlikely.

In a statement, the election committee said publication of the results was being delayed because the remaining regular ballots required additional oversight. Another estimated 430,000 to 480,000 so-called double-envelope ballots have yet to be counted. Counting is scheduled to begin at 1 a.m. Thursday and could be completed by Thursday evening.

The committee said the figure for double-envelope ballots was preliminary, with officials still receiving and processing them. These ballots are mainly cast by soldiers, prisoners, diplomats serving abroad and others unable to reach their designated polling stations. They are counted separately because officials must verify that each voter has not already voted at another polling station.

Full counting results are therefore expected to be released on Thursday afternoon. The final official election results are scheduled to be published on November 4.

Each parliamentary seat is estimated to represent roughly 40,000 votes. The outstanding ballots from voters who were absent from regular polling stations could therefore affect the final political balance. Their results are expected to be incorporated into the overall count in the coming days.