Attacking Iran’s Nuclear Programme Could Push It Toward a Bomb, Experts Warn

Experts in nuclear proliferation and international security have cautioned that military strikes on Iran’s nuclear programme could inadvertently push Tehran closer to pursuing a nuclear weapon, instead of deterring it.

The 2015 nuclear deal (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) had imposed strict limits and verification protocols on Iran’s nuclear activities. However, following the U.S. withdrawal from the agreement in 2018, Iran began increasing uranium enrichment, building up a substantial stockpile of enriched material.

This material, if further processed, could be converted into weapons-grade fuel. While military strikes have damaged certain nuclear sites, they have not dismantled Iran's stockpiles or fully stopped its nuclear advancements.

In fact, such strikes could drive Iran’s nuclear programme underground, restricting international inspection and potentially shortening the time needed for Iran to build a nuclear bomb if it chooses to pursue that path.

Experts also warn that removing international inspectors and disrupting diplomatic channels would complicate efforts to monitor and verify Iran’s nuclear activities, increasing the risk of nuclear proliferation.

Critics argue that such actions could undermine the global non‑proliferation framework and push Iran, or even neighbouring countries, to consider developing nuclear weapons as a defensive measure.

Given the sensitivity of the issue, international organisations emphasise that diplomacy and dialogue are far more effective long‑term solutions to prevent nuclear proliferation, as military action may provoke Iran to pursue nuclear weapons in response to perceived existential threats.